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At the Gate -- Thursday
By Mike Dempsey
Maybe I should take a day off more often. I took Sunday off to give myself an extra day to recuperate from a busy Breeders' Cup Week.
It also gave me an extra day to figure out how I was going to make up the deficit my bankroll was feeling after a sub par Breeders' Cup.
It was good to see Churchill Downs open, and Wednesday turned out to be a good day. Among my top picks were longshots Jedi Code ($21.20) in the seventh race and Finding Aurum ($38.80) in the nightcap.
If you follow my Live Longshots list, you probably have a hefty bankroll after Wednesday. I knocked down six winners from the list, the winners paying $21.40, $11.00, $11.00, $14.60, $21.20, and $38.80. Four others ran in the money.
Let's try to keep it going today. With Churchill Downs in the mix, I don't have to worry about polytrack until spring.
I also should be wired the rest of the week. I bought $50 worth of candy and we have only had about a dozen trick or treaters so far as I write this at 8:00 pm.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct and Churchill Downs that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:
CD Race 1 Md $15,000 (12:40 et)
#8 Treaty 9/2
#5 Loadthewagon 7/2
#3 Calvary 10/1
#10 The Summit 4/1
Analysis: #8 Treaty was sent off at 7/2 in his debut and was not a threat, checking in seventh against maiden special weight company. Returns with a serious class drop and adds lasix to the mix here. Has a nice pedigree, by win early sire Carson City out of a stakes placed mare that has dropped three other foals to race, all winners including stakes winner Lion Tamer ($1 million). Returns off nearly a three month break for Brothers barn that is 14% winners with horses coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
#5 Loadthewagon was a good second in his debut against $30K foes at Turfway and regressed last out at Presque Isle as the beaten chalk against $25K company. Drops into a easier spot here for Mogge barn that does good work with two year olds.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 3,5,8,10
TRI: 5,8 / 3,5,8,10 / 1,3,5,8,9,10
Today's Featured Races of the Day:
AQU Race 3 Wild Again S. (1:56 et)
#4 C P West 2/1
#8 Out of Gwedda 10/1
#2 Buffalo Man 7/2
#7 Owners Manual 3/1
Analysis: #4 C P West makes his first start off a two month break after checking in fifth in the G1 Travers. Two back was a solid second behind Street Sense in the G2 Jim Dandy, earning a career top speed fig in that effort. Three in the money finishes in graded stakes company makes this guy the one to beat and the cut back to a mile may suit.
#8 Out of Gwedda tracked the early pace and did not have any punch in the stretch last out in the Gallant Bob at Philly. Figures to be a early pace player here with the stretch out to a mile. A couple of quick works on the morning tab and his 10/1 ML looks more than fair.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 9/5 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 2,4,7,8
TRI: 4,8 / 2,4,8 / 2,4,5,7,8
CD Race 8 Clm $50,000 (4:04 et)
#1 Commander Carson 9/2
#10 Starbase 3/1
#3 Lumberjack Cat 6/1
#15 Greeley's Angel 6/1
Analysis: #1 Commander Carson was a game winner last out against Alw-1 foes at Ellis and effort was flattered when runner up Hell Broke Loose returned to beat Alw-1 foes in is next outing on 9/13. Gelding has had two months to recover off the career top and has put in a couple of quick works in the mornings. Looks capable of winning right back.
#10 Starbase did not fire last out against a good group of Alw-2 optional; claimers, bouncing off a career top two back when third in the G2 Amsterdam. The winner of his last came back to finish third in the G2 Jerome while two others beat optional claimers in their next starts. This group does not look as deep.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,10 / 1,3,10,15
TRI: 1,10 / 1,3,10,15 / 1,3,4,5,10,15
Live Longshots: These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
AQU R1: #5 Ballymist 10/1
AQU R2: #4 Bellomesa 8/1
AQU R2: #5 Tinted Moon 15/1
AQU R3: #8 Out of Gwedda 10/1
AQU R4: #4 Snow Kid 10/1
AQU R5: #1 Appealing Speed 15/1
AQU R6: #6 Mahemsha 12/1
AQU R7: #9 Seeing Clearly 8/1
AQU R8: #5 Karakorum Tuxedo 8/1
AQU R9: #7 Mighty Thor 15/1
AQU R9: #1 Fogcutter / #1a Star for Tina 8/1
CD R1: #3 Calvary 10/1
CD R2: #1 Foxie's's Boy 10/1
CD R3: #9 Spanish Omelet 12/1
CD R6: #11 Djembe 10/1
CD R6: Timbucto 10/1
CD R7: #8 Miss Isella 12/1
CD R7: #4 Validain 10/1
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