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Breeders' Cup Classic Field and Analysis
The 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic has a very good chance of being, well, a classic. It's going to be a very small field in Breeders' Cup terms - only nine horses have been entered, and one of them would prefer to run in the Mile. That certainly doesn't make it any easier to find a winner, though. Unlike most years there is not a single horse in this field that you can toss out with confidence. Here's a look at the Breeders' Cup Classic field as it stands after pre-entries have been announced and analysis has been included.
Any Given Saturday - This Todd Pletcher trainee is the first of five entries that we saw in the Kentucky Derby this past May. The fact that so much of the field met then, and have met since, make the race particularly interesting to look at. It would be easy to consider this horse the lesser of the Big Five in this race because of his problems in the Derby, but that would be a mistake. Though not as high profile as Curlin or Street Sense, the horse has had a summer that is as least as good as any in the Breeders' Cup Classic field. His signature win was over Curlin in the Haskell Invitational, and that's particularly relevant given that it is on the same Monmouth track as the Classic will be. He followed that up with a victory in the Brooklyn at Belmont. He overcame some heavy contact there to prove that he doesn't need a perfect trip to win. Given that, his love for the track, and his comparative lack of public appeal, it seems likely that Any Given Saturday will be available at an overlay.
Awesome Gem - If you were to rank the field in order of likely odds, Awesome Gem would probably be at the bottom of the list. That doesn't mean that he stands no chance, though. He doesn't have the flashy record of some, but he has been in the top two in 11 of 14 career starts, so he is rarely completely out of a race. He's a West Coast invader whose best efforts have been second place finishes in the Pacific Classic and Goodwood (a duel with Tiago, who is also in this race). Both of those races were on synthetic surfaces, though, so they don't translate exactly to the dirt of Monmouth. He's only run once over the classic distance on dirt, and that resulted in a disappointing last place showing in the Santa Anita Handicap. More intriguing than his record, though, is his breeding for this race. His Sire, Awesome Again, won in 1998, and Ghostzapper, the 2004 champ, is another son of the 1998 champ.
Curlin - This is the most potentially explosive and talented horse in the field, but also the most potentially frustrating. When he is at his best, like in the Preakness or the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then I'm not sure that there's a horse in the world that can beat him. When his mind isn't on running, though, like in the Haskell, then he's extremely vulnerable. I would recommend him without hesitation (and I should say up front that I love this horse and will probably be backing him) if his worst effort of his career weren't over Monmouth. In the Jockey Club he looked like he was beat by Lawyer Ron, but he made a stretch drive that was truly incredible. His critics will point mostly to his inexperience (he only started racing in March of this year), and to the fact that he will likely be the favorite at a low price. There may not be a ton of value in him, but there is infinite potential.
Diamond Stripes - He's entered in the Classic, but his first choice is in the Dirt Mile, and we'll likely see him there. That's a better spot for him as this distance would be a challenge, and Lawyer Ron has owned him in the past.
George Washington - File this one under M for Mystery, because there is no way to know what we will see from this horse. Last year he was one of the top horses in Europe, but he faltered and finished sixth in the Classic. That seemed like an odd spot for him, as both the distance and a dirt surface were new to him. He headed to the breeding shed this year, but, as is every guy's nightmare, he fired only blanks. Back on the track he has been largely disappointing, and he has not tried the dirt again. You could argue that he is outclassed here, but he certainly has the class to contend, and there must be a good reason that his connections have chosen this spot. I'll need a much better reason to back him then I have currently, but I won't rule him out completely.
Hard Spun - The eternal bridesmaid finally got to be the bride when he beat Street Sense in the Kentucky Cup Classic as his final prep. Hard Spun likes the lead and has impressive speed. He showed off his fleet feet in winning the seven-furlong King's Bishop this summer. Despite that, his connections resisted the temptation to turn him into a sprinter and sent him to the Kentucky Cup. He took the lead from the start and never let Street Sense back into the race. Earlier in the summer he showed he enjoys the Monmouth track with a second place showing in the Haskell. His impressive maturation and consistent efforts have put him into the upper echelon of his class. That isn't always typical of a horse who is good, but not good enough, in the Triple Crown.
Lawyer Ron - He's only four, but lawyer Ron is the elder statesman of the field. He's unquestionably the top older dirt horse in the country, as proven by the fact that none, other than Awesome Gem, are challenging him here. His win in the Woodward Stakes, an 8 1/4-length massacre, was perhaps the single most impressive performance of the summer. Wins in the Whitney and the Oaklawn were no less impressive. He has the talent to win, but he fails to settle down and relax at times. If there is a flaw with Lawyer Ron, it is that his only two efforts at the classic distance have been disastrous. He was 12th in the 2006 Derby, and ninth in last year's Classic. The most interesting result of this race will be to see just how good this year's three year olds are. Trainer Todd Pletcher will certainly be hungry for a rematch with Curlin.
Street Sense - The Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Kentucky Derby winner has little to prove. No horse has ever managed that double, and his summer, with wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers, was as good as any Derby winner in recent years. Despite that, though, he's facing all sorts of questions coming into this race. His two biggest wins have come over the same track, Churchill Downs. His Travers win, though stirring, was a hard fought win over Grasshopper, a horse who went on to lose badly against a weak field in his next outing. Hard Spun proved to be too much for him in his last prep. To critics, this is all proof that the Derby champ is not a legitimate Classic contender. To supporters, it just means that he'll go off at a much better price than you would have guessed six weeks ago.
Tiago - This West Coast three year old, half brother to 2005 Derby winner Giacomo, has been lightly regarded by most of the racing world, but he's quietly put together an impressive year. A win in the Santa Anita Derby was followed up by a seventh in the Kentucky Derby. Forgotten in the Belmont thanks to the stunning duel between Rags to Riches and Curlin was a very solid third place finish by Tiago. He's run just twice since then, but he hasn't lost. He won the Swaps in July and the Goodwood, holding off Awesome Gem, in late September. He has to prove that he can run as well on dirt, and that he can measure up to the best of the East Coast. If you believe that he can then you certainly should be able to get a fair price on him.
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