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At the Gate -- Friday
October 26, 2007
It looks like it is going to be a wet and wild Breeders' Cup this year. The expanded two day event kicks off at Monmouth Park on Friday with a ten race card featuring the three new Breeders' Cup races: Filly & Mare Sprint, Juvenile Turf, and Dirt Mile. Each race has a $1 million purse.
Mother Nature apparently is not much of a horse racing fan. Here is the forecast for the next two days:
Friday: 61°/60° 100% chance of precip.
Saturday Rain / Thunder 69°/52° 80% chance of precip.
The main track will be sealed Thursday night and generally a sealed track benefits horses with early speed. It will be important to see how the surface plays in the opening few races, but do yourself a favor and don't jump to conclusions.
It seems the first thing television commentators want to say is the track is favoring speed after watching one logical horse go gate to wire early on the card.
There are several late defections from Breeders' Cup races.
Cry and Catch Me spiked a fever and will not run in the Juvenile Fillies. She figured to be part of an imposing duo along with Indian Blessing for trainer Bob Baffert.
Dixie Chatter will be scratched out of the Juvenile. The colt came up with a fever after arriving from California for trainer Richard Mandella.
Attilla's Storm will miss Saturday's Sprint. Trainer Richard Schosberg reported the five year old has a filling in an ankle.
Thursday's featured race at Aqueduct worked out quite nicely. My top two picks combined for a $159.50 exacta. It would be nice to knock down a couple of exactas like that today to give us a nice bankroll for tomorrow.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct, Monmouth Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Md $30,000 (1:15 et)
#10 Quaking Asp 6/1
#11 Tiz My Dream 3/1
#8 Tactical 7/2
#3 Red Pepper 12/1
Analysis: #10 Quaking Asp drops in for a tag for the first time here for Proctor barn that is 23% winners moving runners from maiden special to maiden claiming. She was not a threat last out at Ky Downs after a decent effort two back where the filly made a mild late tun to finish fourth at Ellis, beaten two lengths for the top spot. Looms more suited at last pedigree wise for the main track.
#11 Tiz My Dream put in a good effort last out in her first go off nearly a six month break. Raced out wide much of the trip and finished well, beaten 3 1/4 lengths for the top spot. Earned the top last out speed fig in the effort and looks like a good fit here for barn that has sent out some live runners at the meeting and is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a 45-180 day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #10 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 10,11 / 3,8,10,11
TRI: 10,11 / 3,8,10,11 / 2,3,8,10,11,12
Today's Featured Races of the Day:
MTH Race 8 BC Filly Mare Sprint (4:25 et)
#1 Miss Macy Sue 6/1
#3 Dream Rush 2/1
#8 Wild Gams 10/1
#7 La Traviata 5/2
Analysis: #1 Miss Macy Sue comes in here having won 5 out of her last 6 starts. While I was skeptical about her last start winning the PI Masters over the Tapeta which earned solid numbers, both pace and speed figs, I am more confident that was a solid race after the runner up #8 Wild Gams came back to win the G3 TCA at Keeneland on 10/6. The trip is going to be key. Razo needs to find some room for her filly as she likely is going to be mid pack. If she gets a good trip she should be in good position as they turn for home. She had a easy breeze over the main track here on 10/22 which was a maintenance drill, as she was not asked for her best. She looks to be sitting on a good one here and she is going to be an overlay. She has a win over a wet fast track and a solid enough off track pedigree if the rains come.
#3 Dream Rush has won 6 of her 8 career starts and comes in here of back to back G1 wins in the Prioress and Test. She has one gear and that is to be sent early and she may have to settle for sitting second or third in the early going as a couple of these may get the jump on her early. She is a real classy filly in good hands with Violette barn and she will be tough to keep out of the exacta. She is bred top and bottom to handle a wet track.
#8 Wild Gams made a good late rally to win the G3 TCA at Keeneland last out with a six wide run, taking advantage of a track bias that was favoring horses well off the rail. She got going too late two back behind our top pick at Presque Isle, finishing strongly for second. She is a deep closer but look for a aggressive Ramon Dominguez to get her into position as they turn for home. She is capable with her best as long as the surface is not favoring speed and she is going to be a decent price in here.
Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,7,8
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,7,8 / 1,3,6,7,8,9
KEE Race 9 Alw $54,000N2X (5:15 et)
#5 Ballymore Lady 6/1
#3 Unforgotten 5/1
#2 V.I.P. Princess 15/1
#8 Mostbeautifulstorm 4/1
Analysis: #5 Ballymore Lady makes her first start since March where when finishing third in a couple of starts on the grass after arriving in the U.S. She missed by a head and a neck last out, the winner now a stakes winner and graded stakes placed. Two back third behind winner Fantastic Shirl, who also is now a stakes winner and graded stakes placed. Lands with Kenneally barn that is 19% winners with horses coming back off a +90 day layoff.
#3 Unforgotten put in a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out going six furlongs here. Two back ran a decent third in the PI Inaugural, the first race run at the Erie track. The extra furlong will suit this filly.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 3,5 / 2,3,5,8
TRI: 3,5 / 2,3,5 / 2,3,5,8,9,12
Live Longshots: These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
AQU R2: #3 Professor Hennessy 12/1
AQU R3: #4 Again and Again 8/1
AQU R4: #3 Love Co 12/1
AQU R5: #6 Jabeesh 8/1
AQU R6: #1 Daddy Eddie 8/1
AQU R7: #7 Mor Chances 10/1
AQU R8: #7 Conduct of Honour 15/1
AQU R8: #4 Full of rage 15/1
MTH R1: #8 Nicksappealinglady 12/1
MTH R3: #5 Intuition Magic 8/1
MTH R3: #6 Warrior's Vow 20/1
MTH R4: #3 Call the Marines 12/1
MTH R6: #1 Grace and Power 10/1
MTH R8: #8 Wild Gams 10/1
MTH R10: #7 Park Avenue Ball 15/1
MTH R10: #6 Gottcha Gold 8/1
KEE R1: #3 Red Pepper 12/1
KEE R2: #8 Black Limo 12/1
KEE R3: #1 Ticklish Will 10/1
KEE R5: #6 Lemons Sky 8/1
KEE R6: #1 Galloping Home 20/1
KEE R7: #2 Ms. Margaret H. 10/1
KEE R7: #7 Sassifaction 12/1
KEE R8: #4 Chamberlain Bridge 10/1
KEE R9: #2 V.I.P. Princess 15/1
KEE R10: #8 Stellas New Groove 15/1
KEE R10: #3 Sousaphone 8/1
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