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Churchill plans 'over/under' betting
Awaits final OK to start this fall
Churchill Downs, the last Kentucky track to introduce 10-cent superfecta wagering, plans to offer a new bet this fall patterned after the "over/under" in sports betting.
The "over/under" is based on the total of the program numbers of the first three finishers. The "number" for each race is established by mathematical formula based on field size. For instance, the number always will be 18 in an 11-horse race.
It is akin to sports betting, where oddsmakers establish the over/under based on the combined final score of a game. Gamblers bet whether the point total will be more or less than the oddsmaker's proffered number.
Bettors also will have the opportunity to bet "on" the number, in addition to the over and under. The wager is canceled with full refunds if there are scratches. The bet also won't be offered on races with coupled entries or fewer than six starters.
Churchill Downs Inc. vice president Tom Aronson touts the "over/under" as the only bet "where you can be completely wrong and still win," because of all the combinations that come into play.
The number would be 32 for a 20-horse Kentucky Derby, with only 45 ways to hit that out of 1,140 combinations. "The morning line on the number would be around 20-1," offering value to players, Aronson said.
Pending approval by the Kentucky Horse Racing Authority, the "over/under" would start sometime after the fall meet begins next Sunday.
Aronson said the track will pay close attention to testing the process used to make the launch, including public awareness, potential tote-system glitches, mutuel clerks' training and how simulcasting outlets receive it.
"Part of the learning process here is to understand the dynamics of how to introduce things," he said. "One piece of the constellation is how you put stuff in front of people and see what they like."
In the late 1990s, former Downs president Tom Meeker introduced the "odd/even" and "roulette," two short-lived bets designed to appeal to neophytes but which were overwhelmingly ignored.
"What I think might be different here is the third element, the 'number,' " said Aronson, a respected industry consultant brought in six months ago by Churchill.
He said as the process for launching bets is perfected, more intricate wagers will be introduced.
"My goal is to have … our fans think if they haven't come to Churchill Downs recently, or to one of our wagering outlets, they might be missing something," he said.
The "over/under," he said, "is a first step … if people by the thousands say 'It's not interesting,' then I'm taking it off the menu. It got voted off the island, and we go on to something else."
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