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At the Gate -- Wednesday
By Mike Dempsey
The Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships are history, and despite the races being run over a sea of slop and a soft turf, the results were fairly logical for the most part.
Year-end honors were decided in just about every category. Despite the weather and track conditions, the biggest winner of the day was Lahudood, who won the Filly & Mare Turf and returned $25.20 for a $2 wager.
Seven of the eleven Breeders' Cup winners were sent off at 5/1 or less.
The biggest disappointment on the day was Dylan Thomas in the Turf. Regarded as the top turf horse in the world, the four year old colt appeared to dislike the soft going, finishing a non threatening fifth behind winner English Channel.
European based horses were shut out of the turf events. Nownownow won the Juvenile Turf, Kip Deville won the Mile, and Lahudood won the Filly Mare Turf, all three winners U.S. based runners.
I had a rather underwhelming day on Friday and Saturday. I really don't want to go back and look, but I am thinking I had my worst Breeders' Cup ever. The off track and soft going of the turf course helped me keep by wagering in check, but my reports were less than impressive.
With Keeneland closing, the racing in Kentucky shifts to Churchill Downs, one of my favorite tracks. Full fields will be the norm over the next month and hitting a few large trifectas are sure to follow.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct and Churchill Downs that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Churchill Downs to get our day off to a good start:
CD Race 1 Md $15,000 (12:40 et)
#9 Wildcat Sol 6/1
#2 Ide Mulloy 6/1
#7 Include the Lady 5/2
#5 She Don't Know 12/1
Analysis: #9 Wildcat Sol showed some early zip in her debut before weakening to finish fourth and last out regressed as the beaten fav in sixth place finish. Her last race has been productive, the third and fifth place finishers returning to graduate in their next starts. Drops another notch in class for sharp barn and pedigree suggest the extra distance here should suit. She is a half to three winners, top earner 3 for 12 Chacana ($66K).
#2 Ide Mulloy stalked the early pace while wide and was not a threat in the stretch in fifth place finish in her debut. That came at a two turn mile over the poly at Turfway. Only two in here earned a higher last out speed fig and this gal figures to move forward with a race under her belt. Good jock switch to Leparoux.
Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 7/2 or better.
EX: 2,9 / 2,5,7,9
TRI: 2,9 / 2,5,7,9 / 2,3,5,6,7,9
Today's Featured Races of the Day:
AQU Race 7 OClm $50,000N2X (3:52 et)
#4 Rabatash 5/1
#1 Emirates to Dubai / #1a Chief Operator 7/2
#8 Perfect Casting 3/1
#3 Yazamaan 9/2
Analysis: #4 Rabatash makes his U.S. debut here for Tagg barn that is 20% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn and 26% winners (with a +ROI) with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The colt broke slowly last out and was not a factor in a listed stake at the Curragh off a long layoff. The colt won a Group 3 tow back last summer earning a Racing Post rating of 108. Only three published works on the morning tab and lasix is added here. Barn has a good track record with layoff types so we'll figure she will fire a good one off the bench.
#1 Emirates to Dubai was taken back to rate off the pace while outside runners, angled to the inside to save ground and did not have any impact in the stretch, checking in fourth last out. The colt won his first two starts in the U.S. including a sharp win against Alw-1 foes two back. He still appears to have plenty of upside and is a half bro to stakes winner Mezzo Soprano ($410K).
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 3/1 or better.
EX: 1,4 / 1,3,4,8
TRI: 1,4 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,2,4,5,7,8
CD Race 9 OClm $80,000N$Y (4:34 et)
#2 Just for Keeps 8/1
#5 Somethinaboutbetty 3/1
#4 Silverinyourpocket 7/2
#8 Stormin Mon 8/1
Analysis: #2 Just for Keeps went gate to wire to beat $50K foes last out at Keeneland and did it over a poly surface that was slightly favoring outside stalkers and closers. The filly was claimed out of the race by maker barn that is 25% winners first off the claim. Usually I don't like to back runners exiting the Asmussen barn but new connections are very capable of getting this gal to run well right back.
#5 Somethinaboutbetty is coming off a close up third in a $77K stake at Belmont on grass. She is 0 for 13 o grass in her career and the switch to the main track and into the allowance ranks should suit her. Barn is 25% winners moving runners from turf to dirt. Filly has a couple of good works over the poly at Keeneland.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 8/1 or better.
EX: 2,5 / 2,4,5,8
TRI: 2,5 / 2,4,5,8 / 2,4,5,7,8
Live Longshots: These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
AQU R1: #9 Joyeux Ruler 12/1
AQU R2: #2 Huge Party 8/1
AQU R2: #8 Lynchburg Lady 12/1
AQU R4: #5 Coach Butts 15/1
AQU R5: #8 Mulligatawny 15/1
AQU R6: #8 City of Lights 8/1
AQU R8: #8 Smokin Sarah 10/1
CD R1: #5 She Don't Know 12/1
CD R2: #9 Sultry Bidder 15/1
CD R3: #12 Seattle Reed 8/1
CD R4: #9 Stravinsky's Code 10/1
CD R4: #4 Withlapatience 10/1
CD R5: #3 Privy's Jewel 8/1
CD R6: #3 Im More Than Flash 20/1
CD R7: #4 Jedi Code 15/1
CD R7: #7 Biker Boy 12/1
CD R8: #6 Scooter D 8/1
CD R9: #2 Just for Keeps 8/1
CD R9: #8 Stormin Mon 8/1
CD R10: #1 Finding Aurum 8/1
Weekly Track Bias Report Update For October 21-28
Aqueduct:
10/24/07: good edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire
10/25/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 3 gate to wire
10/28/07: slight edge to runners on or near pace, 3 path in, 3 gate to wire
Calder:
10/28/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 1 gate to wire
Keeneland:
10/25/07: edge to stalkers/closers, 4-5 paths, 0 gate to wire
10/27/07: slight edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire
Churchill Downs:
10/28/07: edge to stalkers/closers, 3-5 paths, 0 gate to wire
Mountaineer:
10/21/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 4 gate to wire
10/23/07: slight edge to speed, 3 path in, 5 gate to wire
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