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At the Gate -- Saturday
It's going to be another soggy and rainy day on the Jersey Shore on Saturday for Day Two of the Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships.
As I write this at 8:50 ET on Friday evening, it is pouring in Oceanport, NJ.
My bankroll feels soggy after a lousy day on Friday.
Miss Macy Sue was my top pick in Friday's Filly & Mare Sprint, and she could do no better than third. Domestic Fund appeared to be handling the yielding turf well in the early going of the Juvenile Turf and I was feeling pretty good about my top pick. But the colt weakened in the stretch and finished fifth.
Discreet Cat ran exactly how I thought he would in the Dirt Mile, a struggling third at an underlay of a price. I tried to beat him with Park Avenue Ball and Gottcha Gold.
Gottcha Gold ran a good race to finish second after setting a fast early pace and was no match for a hard charging Corinthian, who drew clear smartly to win by 6 ½ lengths in a very impressive effort.
The bad news is I was 0 for 3 in Breeders' Cup races and there were few bright spots on the entire Monmouth Park card, although I had a pretty good day at Keeneland.
The good news is there are eight Breeders' Cup races left today.
To purchase my full card report for Aqueduct, Monmouth Park and Keeneland that includes analysis, selections, fair odds, and wagering recommendations for today click here.
Here is today's opener from Keeneland to get our day off to a good start:
KEE Race 1 Clm $30,000N2L (12:45 et)
#8 Any Minute Now 12/1
#3 Lower Estate 9/2
#7 Risen Chief 5/1
#10 Thunderbolt in May 4/1
Analysis: #8 Any Minute Now ships in from NY and lands with Barnett as Contessa is out on a suspension. The colt put in a couple of decent efforts on grass at the non winners of two condition and has tailed off in his last two starts. The pedigree is not screaming turf and perhaps the switch to the poly may wake this guy up. The colt has had a couple of decent drills on the main track at Churchill and the price figures to be generous.
#3 Lower Estate came back off a 14 moth layoff last out with a good effort in a runner up finish going a mile on poly at Turfway. Figures to be fitter second off the bench for Stall barn that is 33% winners (with a +ROI) with horses making their second start off a +180 day layoff.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 6/1 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 3,7,8,10
TRI: 3,8 / 3,7,8,10 / 2,3,7,8,10
Today's Featured Race of the Day:
MTH Race 6 BC Filly & Mare Turf G1 (1:55 et)
#4 Passage of Time 7/2
#3 Nashoba's Key 3/1
#9 Danzon 12/1
#11 Simply Perfect 15/1
#2 Honey Ryder 9/2
Analysis: #4 Passage of Time is the most promising of the four Euro invaders in this race. After getting outrun in the G1 English Oaks she came back with a better effort last out in the G1 Prix Vermeille, earning a 113 Racing Post figure. The winner of the race was Mrs. Lindsay, who came back to win the G1 E.P. Taylor at Woodbine in her next outing. Note last fall she won the G1 Criterium de Saint Cloud against the boys. Cecil is 0 for 5 in BC races, the best finish a second with Eltish back in the '94 Juvenile. Ramon up adds to her appeal and she has handled turf with plenty of give to it. Worried about her price, if the turf is soft the Euros will get extra attention at the windows.
#3 Nashoba's Key is a perfect 7 for 7 in her career, winning the G1 Yellow Ribbon last out. She has shown immense talent but has not raced out of California, not had to handle anything but firm ground and has an inexperienced (but very talented) jock in Talamo. However, there is not much pace in here and she could get a easy trip from on or close to the pace, and that should make her tough here in the stretch.
#9 Danzon finished strongly to win the G3 Ky Cup Distaff over the poly at Turfway. Her career top Beyer (103) was a third place finish against the boys in the G1 Turf Classic at Churchill over yielding footing back in May. She appears to be coming into this race in top form and is proven over a turf with some give to it. She might "strike" late for Biancobras' assistant Parisel. Her 12/1 ML looks more than fair.
Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,9,11
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,9,11 / 2,3,4,9,11,12
Live Longshots:
These are price plays to watch today. A small win-place wager is in order or if your pockets are deep enough, use these runners in your trifecta and Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. One or two of these could be the difference between a regular day at the track and hitting the IRS window with a signer.
AQU R1: #2 Chief Broken Arrow 10/1
AQU R1: #3 Bullet From Abroad 15/1
AQU R3: #6 Goldsville 12/1
AQU R3: #7 Unbridled Trip 12/1
AQU R4: #4 Sparksfly 12/1
AQU R5: #4 Analyze Cat 10/1
AQU R6: #6 Ruby's Trick 10/1
AQU R8: #7 True Rock N Roll 8/1
KEE R1: #8 Any Minute Now 12/1
KEE R2: #11 Slick as Slew 15/1
KEE R4: #5 Hell Broke Loose 12/1
KEE R5: #2 Voodoo Warrior 15/1
KEE R6: #2 Promise Me a Prize 15/1
KEE R7: #3 Demeteor 15/1
MTH R2: #12 International Fever 12/1
MTH R2: #5 Control System 15/1
MTH R3: #9 Silver Source 10/1
MTH R4: #1 Phantom Income 30/1
MTH R4: #9 Smarty Deb 30/1
MTH R5: #3 Kodiak Kowboy 8/1
MTH R6: #9 Danzon 12/1
MTH R6: #11 Simply Perfect 15/1
MTH R7: #7 Idiot Proof 10/1
MTH R7: #10 Greg's Gold 15/1
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